Explaining Variation in South Korean Attitudes toward Bilateral Free Trade Agreements with the United States, China, and Japan

Abstract

When first signed in 2007, the Korea—U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) was expected to obtain strong public support as many trade experts predicted economic gains for both countries. Contrary to such expectations, however, South Koreans displayed varying levels of support toward KORUS FTA when the official negotiations began in 2006. Therefore, the first part of this research is devoted to answering the following question: "what explains the variation in trade policy preferences among South Koreans to the 2007 KORUS FTA?" This paper identifies trade policy preferences of individuals and empirically examines individual-level factors for either supporting or opposing the agreement. The project then uses rational choice, value framing, and national security frameworks to develop different hypotheses. These hypotheses are then tested using poll data from the East Asia Institute, JoongAng Daily, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. The second part of the research applies the same explanatory model to analyze the varying levels of support for Korea's bilateral FTAs with China and Japan. The national security framework is expanded further explain the variation in South Koreans' attitudes toward Korea's bilateral FTAs with the US, China, and Japan.